Dedebit | Feb 16/2024

By Bahre Meaza (PhD)

Will Egypt give in to this danger or find another solution? Will Ethiopia survive the path it is taking or will it fall prey to the challenges of Egypt?

The leader who boldly launched the Nile Dam (GERD), Meles Zenawi, is known to be grateful to Ethiopia, even though Ethiopians are not grateful to Meles and Meles’s Tribe. Meles knew very clearly not only the benefits of the GERD to Ethiopia, as the Suez Canal is to Egypt, but also the consequences of launching the dam. And, he was ready for it diplomatically, economically and technically. By the way, are we aware that Egypt and Israel were at war over the Suez Canal? But yeah, America intervened and saved them. It is a matter of time between Ethiopia and Egypt, too.

Anyway – let me say something about the dam, because I am a water professional.

The international law of the cross boundary water resources clearly states the benefits of the upstream and downstream countries. It considers both the cross boundary aquifers and surface water resources. It might be relatively difficult on how to apply the law on transboundary aquifers, while it’s clear on surface water resources. I will have a follow up article on this. So, stay tuned.

In this brief article, let’s just see the following three facts:

1. The source of the Nile River is the mountainous highlands of the upstream countries (mainly Ethiopia). So, this tells me that if recharge optimization works are not carried out in these mountains, the Nile water will be reduced. This is because the discharges of the springs (sources of tributary rivers) will decrease with the decrease in recharge. So, the construction of the dam is completely a #handcuff on Egypt. This means that Egypt must go after the Ethiopian mountains and build recharge optimization structures. If not now, this will be a must soon. Otherwise, the flow of the river may decrease significancy. This might be done even on purpose. Politically speaking, this implies that Ethiopia is not going to be targeted by Egypt at any point in time. Instead, Egypt will protect Ethiopia from any danger, just to make sure that Ethiopia would be genuine to optimize the upstream works on the Nile catchment.
2. When the dam is finished, how much water do you think will be wasted by fish farming, irrigation, recreation, etc. and the turbine itself? Of course, even if Ethiopia wants to build large irrigation projects, the world, let alone Egypt, may not allow it. By the way, it is not the mechanized farming, but the unmeasurable micro-scale operations that I mentioned above that waste water. Because the big ones are already measured, so what is missing is known. But the waste of these small works is enormous. So, are they considered this way?
3. All in all – although I’ll come back to it at length another time, for me the Nile Dam is just another Suez Canal in its current state. I think that it is a trap “to whoever it’s!”. I am proud of it because it’s a legacy of the great leader, Meles Zenawi. But for the Egyptians, I like to confirm that it is a trap, that’s the size of the Suez Canal.