Foreign Policy Warns of Rising Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions.

Foreign Policy magazine has warned that escalating diplomatic and military tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are among the “10 conflicts likely to arise and deserving attention” by 2026.

The publication cautioned that a potential confrontation between the two neighboring countries could plunge the entire Horn of Africa into a full-scale war.

In recent months, the war of words and exchange of allegations between Addis Ababa and Asmara has heightened the risk of conflict. The growing threat comes at a time when the international community remains preoccupied with other crises, particularly the war in Sudan.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) has accused Eritrea of training and arming anti-government militants operating inside Ethiopia. Eritrean officials, in turn, have branded Ethiopia an “aggressor,” according to the report.

The magazine further noted that Abiy’s public declaration of Ethiopia’s desire to secure access to a seaport has raised concerns that Ethiopia could attempt to seize ports it used prior to Eritrean independence.

Foreign Policy identified Ethiopia’s political changes after 2018 as a root cause of current tensions. Abiy’s alliance with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki following his rise to power led Eritrea to support Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray War. However, the Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in November 2022, has since created new strains between the two countries.

According to the report, Eritrea opposed the Pretoria Agreement, and Ethiopia has since faced a security crisis involving militants it claims are backed by Eritrea—including Fano fighters in the Amhara region and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia. Internal divisions in Tigray and the complex ties between local groups and Asmara have further destabilized the situation.

The magazine also highlighted that both countries have been extensively stockpiling weapons since the Tigray War. It warned that renewed hostilities could escalate into a broader regional crisis, potentially drawing in Sudanese forces, local militias, and other regional actors.

Foreign Policy called for urgent diplomatic engagement, urging Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, the United States, China, the European Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the United Nations to actively work toward defusing tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara. The magazine stressed that another war would be devastating for a region still struggling to recover from the wars in Tigray and Sudan.