Press Communiqué by Ethiopians Cooperate for Victory and Transition on the Escalating Crisis in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.

We, Ethiopians from diverse backgrounds, having created a forum for cooperation to work for democratic transition and transformation in Ethiopia, issue this communiqué out of deep concern about the escalating political, military, and humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ethiopia and across the wider Horn of Africa. Our purpose is to highlight the grave dangers posed by the ongoing internal conflict, regional destabilization, and the growing risk of state collapse in a country of more than 130 million people. Ethiopia is facing one of the most dangerous moments in its modern history. The internal political space continues to shrink, with dissent criminalized and civic institutions weakened. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has plunged the country into endless conflicts that have caused tremendous loss of life, livelihoods, and national resources. To wit:

• Active military operations are ongoing in the two largest regions of the country, endangering the Amhara and Oromo populations.

• The conflicts have resulted in widespread war crimes and crimes against humanity, mass displacement, economic paralysis, and deepening mistrust between the Ethiopian people and those who govern them.

• The Pretoria Agreement, which ended the devastating Tigray war, is now nearing collapse, as the government is transporting significant military assets and several corps of troops toward northern Ethiopia, including areas bordering Eritrea.

• These mobilizations raise fears of renewed hostilities in Tigray. Another round of war there, in addition to ongoing conflicts across the rest of Ethiopia, would have catastrophic humanitarian and political consequences.

Beyond Ethiopia, the government’s actions risk igniting new interstate conflicts. The bellicose rhetoric of high-ranking officials and military commanders has already created fear of destabilization in the Horn of Africa.

• Public statements by the Prime Minister asserting Ethiopia’s right to secure a Red Sea port “by force if necessary” have heightened tensions. Such rhetoric risks triggering a catastrophic interstate conflict, reminiscent of the 1998-2000 war.

• Ethiopia’s alignment with external actors, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and its direct support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a Sudanese rebel group, undermine the legitimate government of Sudan and fuel regional instability

• The signing of an MOU with Somaliland, granting recognition in exchange for a ceded port, despite its apparent rescission, demonstrated a flagrant disregard for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia, undermining trust and heightening regional tensions.

• Reports of foreign-funded military bases, training facilities, and the flow of advanced weaponry into and through Ethiopia raise serious concerns about the militarization of the Horn and the empowerment of separatist or rebel groups.

Ethiopia’s internal fragmentation, combined with regional entanglements, is pushing the country toward a dangerous precipice. We are concerned that, unless the current trajectory is halted, there
will be:

1. Humanitarian and Social Breakdown

• Millions already face human rights abuses, hunger, displacement, and economic hardship. A renewed multi-front civil war would devastate the country’s economic and social
fabric.

• A multidimensional crisis could overwhelm already fragile institutions that are barely assisting the most vulnerable and could cause the breakdown of government structures.

2. Refugee Crisis

• A collapse of authority in Ethiopia would trigger one of the largest refugee crises in modern history.
• Neighboring countries—already strained—would face massive inflows.
• Europe and other Western nations, already struggling with migration pressures, would face further destabilization

3. Security Threats

• A destabilized Ethiopia and the region would create fertile ground for extremist groups far more radical and entrenched than those previously seen in the Horn of Africa or elsewhere.

• The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab maritime corridor—one of theworld’s most sensitive trade routes—would become increasingly insecure.

After assessing the situation and discussing it in depth, we have agreed to warn all stakeholders that the Ethiopian government’s apparent decision to escalate internal or external conflicts poses an existential threat. We do not believe war can resolve Ethiopia’s political, economic, or territorial challenges. Dialogue and inclusive political processes are the only viable paths forward. Therefore, we urge the governments of the Horn of Africa, the African Union, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to:

• Act collectively and decisively to prevent further destabilization.
• Discourage any ill-considered military action by Ethiopia.
• Promote diplomatic solutions to disputes over borders, ports, and regional security.

We call on the United Nations, the European Union, the United States government, and other global actors to:

• Recognize the scale of the crisis and the destructive role of the current Ethiopian leadership and use their good offices to halt the escalation.
• Apply coordinated diplomatic pressure to prevent renewed war in Tigray and to avoid escalation with Eritrea.
• Monitor and restrict the flow of foreign weapons and military financing into Ethiopia.
• Support peacebuilding, humanitarian relief, and inclusive political dialogue.

Finally, we underscore that Ethiopia stands at a crossroads. The decisions made in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the country moves toward peace and reconstruction or descends into a prolonged and devastating conflict with far-reaching regional and global
consequences.

We issue this communiqué in the hope that reason will prevail, that the wars already underway will cease, that those now in the making will be averted, and that Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa can move toward stability, cooperation, and lasting peace.

Urgent action is needed to prevent further conflict in Ethiopia!