TPLF Issues Urgent Appeal: Ethiopia Faces Imminent Risk of Renewed War

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has Sounded a critical warning, warning that Ethiopia is on the brink of a catastrophic war that could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. In a memorandum addressed to diplomatic missions and international partners, the party accused the Federal Government of systematically undermining the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) and escalating military mobilization, leaving little room for dialogue.

Collapse of the Peace Agreement

The TPLF declared that the CoHA, signed to end two years of devastating War, has been “systematically violated” and rendered “moribund.” Institutions tasked with implementing the deal have failed to function, and none of its core provisions have been meaningfully enforced. According to the memorandum, this breakdown reflects the Federal Government’s lack of political commitment to peace from the outset.

Reinstating Democratic Institutions

Faced with what it described as a governance vacuum, the TPLF leadership initiated consultations across Tigray involving more than one million participants. After weighing options such as continuing the Interim Regional Administration, establishing a transitional government, or holding new elections, the majority favored reinstating the 2020 elected House of Representatives.

The House has now resumed its sovereign mandate, tasked with forming an inclusive executive and judicial structure to preserve legitimacy and order. In a notable gesture, the TPLF proposed allocating one‑third of cabinet positions to opposition parties. The House endorsed the plan, and invitations have been extended to opposition organizations. The TPLF argued that such inclusivity would strengthen political unity and social cohesion in defending Tigray’s interests.

Dire Humanitarian and Economic Conditions

The memorandum painted a bleak picture of life in Tigray. A fuel embargo has paralyzed transport and agriculture, while restrictions on commercial goods have driven inflation to intolerable levels. Economic activity in towns and cities has collapsed, leaving ordinary citizens unable to afford basic necessities.

Internally displaced persons (IDPs) face worsening conditions as the rainy season approaches. The TPLF accused the Federal Government and allied forces in Western Tigray of deliberately preventing displaced families from returning to their homes and farmlands. Humanitarian assistance has declined sharply, with some international agencies withdrawing altogether. Reports of human rights abuses continue, and new arrivals at displacement camps underscore the ongoing insecurity.

Military Encirclement and Escalation

The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have intensified deployments along Tigray’s borders, creating what the TPLF described as a suffocating encirclement. The group warned that this militarization is deepening socioeconomic hardship and psychological distress, raising the risk of renewed confrontation.

Beyond Tigray, the Federal Government continues military operations in Amhara and Oromia, where ground forces, artillery, and drone strikes have caused civilian casualties. The TPLF argued that rather than pursuing peace, the government has chosen to stage elections as a show of legitimacy, while excluding vast regions from participation.

Criticism of Elections

The Prosperity Party-led elections were dismissed as illegitimate. According to the TPLF, significant portions of the country—including all of Tigray, large areas of Amhara and Oromia, and parts of Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella—were excluded. Opposition parties were prevented from meaningful participation due to harassment and restrictions. “Legitimacy cannot be achieved through exclusion, repression, starvation, or killing of citizens,” the memorandum stated.

Regional and International Stakes

The TPLF warned that Ethiopia’s trajectory of “unilateralism, coercion, and militarization” risks igniting a wider conflict with regional consequences. Renewed war, it argued, would not remain confined within Ethiopia’s borders. Given existing tensions with neighboring states, any escalation could destabilize the Horn of Africa, aggravating humanitarian crises and undermining fragile security arrangements.

Appeal for International Engagement

Despite its grim assessment, the TPLF reaffirmed its commitment to dialogue. “War remains avoidable,” the statement declared, but emphasized that prevention now depends on immediate, principled, and sustained international engagement. The TPLF urged global actors to assume a more active role in bringing parties to the negotiating table, warning that failure to act would amount to complicity in Ethiopia’s slide toward renewed war.

“The present moment is decisive,” the memorandum concluded. “The risk of catastrophic conflict is no longer hypothetical. War is already exacting a heavy toll in Amhara and Oromia, and the danger of renewed confrontation involving Tigray is becoming increasingly imminent.”