Dedebit | Feb 14/2025

The Abiy government signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) with the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) in Nov 2022, after two years of genocidal war. The agreement was partly a result of the sustained unimaginable loses Abiy forces faced in its war against the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), diplomatic pressure from the west and Tigray Diaspora and the realization that war is not a sustainable solution to the political question of Tigray. This agreement was further expanded through additional negotiations with the TDF in Nairobi in 2023.

On Nov 13, 2025 (almost after 3 years), the NEBE issued a statement that cancelled the political party status of the TPLF in Ethiopia which, disappointingly, is contrary to the spirit and stipulations of the COHA.

The manipulative nature of Abiy is clear. His FDRE COHA negotiators recognized the TPLF as a political entity (the day the COHA was signed and parliament declared to remove it from the sham terrorist label) and signed the COHA in Pretoria in 2022. On the other hand, the NEBE, with a nefarious track record, is being used to override principles enshrined in the COHA which doesn’t allow for a unilateral FDRE decision to cancel the legal status of the TPLF on procedural or technical grounds. Sadly, it’s a Deja vu of 2020.

It has been clear that the NEBE, at the direction of the prime minister, continues to overstep its role which is creating a dangerous circumstance that undermines the peace process that resulted from intense negotiations after 2 years of bloodshed. It could also reignite a political crisis and hence this needs to be corrected as soon as possible.

The FDRE has used similar tactics in the past when it started the war on Tigray in 2020. It is a master of the politicization of institutions such as NEBE, Courts, Media, the Justice Department and other entities, which were expected to remain neutral and supportive of the peace process.

It is absurd and sickening to observe that Abiy is playing a dangerous game that could dim the relative peace that existed between Tigray and Ethiopia for about three years. Tigray doesn’t want to return to the deadliest war of the 21st century.

Moving forward, it is crucial for the international community to make sure that the steps taken by the FDRE through its institutions like the NEBE do not contradict or undermine the peace agreement.

In the end, war resolves nothing. It’s important that all stakeholders engage in constructive dialogue to resolve procedural issues without compromising the hard-won progress toward peace. This includes an Immediate reinstatement of the TPLF’s legal status to its pre-war status.

What the TPLF and Tigray political forces including the TDF should do?

Since the COHA, the TPLF has become a pawn of the FDRE and other political forces. Unless it’s condemned, everyone (other political parties and the TDF) will be a victim of Abiy. Hence, everyone should come together against this NEBE action.

The good news is that the NEBE decision is not surprising. Hence it doesn’t need a knee jerk reaction. As we stated it (privately and publicly), this type of decision would come as a result of not the decision of the TPLF but because it was a preplanned plot by Abiy to disqualify the TPLF.

We also speculated that the NEBE will probably give the TPLF’s name and certificate to another group (will see if such group succumbs to such fatal action of taking a certificate that they can’t use in Tigray’s political landscape) since this would kill the COHA that has only been alive on-paper only.

What should the TPLF do?
– make a clear statement rejecting the NEBE decision and let the international ‘guarantors’ of the agreement know about it.
– ⁠make a clear statement to the IC partners that this is continuation of Abiy’s measures to kill the COHA that survived on paper only.
– ⁠implement the recent decision of the TSF (TDF) without delay to make sure that there is an organized leadership at the TIRA level.
– ⁠call for a demonstration against this NEBE decision in Tigray and beyond

It is TIME to carefully think about the response to NEBE and the entire federal system but more importantly to never relent back.

In my view, at this juncture, Abiy doesn’t have the courage and bandwidth to start another war front given his situation in the Amhara, Oromia regions and his open clash of words with Eritrea.

#Peace4Tigray
#NoMoreWar

MGS
Nov 13, 2025