— Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivered a forceful address to the House of People’s Representatives today, warning that if war breaks out over Ethiopia’s Red Sea concerns, “the outcome is clear.” He emphasized, “We have reliable capabilities; no one will stop us.”

The Prime Minister called on the international community to “mediate” and “promote a solution” to Ethiopia’s Red Sea issue, describing it as “inevitable.” His remarks came during a parliamentary session in which members raised concerns about regional security and accused the Eritrean government—referred to as “Shaabya”—of contributing to instability.

Abiy began by asserting that every nation has its own “national interest” and “national threat,” shaped by the information and knowledge it possesses. He explained that countries use this understanding to either “expand” or “diminish” their strategic priorities. “What this honorable assembly must understand is that Ethiopia is the country where the last injustice, injustice, and injustice were committed. At the very least, don’t stop us from saying this,” he declared.

He warned that “the absence of war does not mean the absence of gunfire,” and stressed that “if true justice is not ensured, war can break out at any time.” According to Abiy, lasting peace cannot be achieved under unjust or arbitrary decisions. He described Ethiopia’s Red Sea issue as “legal, historical, geographical, and economic,” and questioned the legitimacy of how Ethiopia lost access to the sea. “The decision was not made by the cabinet, parliament, or the Ethiopian people through a referendum,” he said.

“The way we lost something like the Red Sea has a legal problem. Institutions were not involved, the cabinet was unaware, and we haven’t found a single page of documentation explaining how it happened,” he stated. He described the pursuit of sea access as an “existential issue” for Ethiopia.

Abiy recounted that the road to Assab was rehabilitated under an agreement with the Eritrean government, but the arrangement failed. “After we repaired the road, they said, ‘We have a problem—the port is weak.’ Some now claim it happened overnight. It didn’t. We just haven’t told the story,” he said. He revealed that when Ethiopia attempted to send a generator and crane to assist the port, the Eritrean government refused. “That’s when we realized this thing is hopeless,” he said.

He added that although border crossings were opened during that period, they were “immediately closed.” Ethiopia had offered to supply electricity to Eritrea at its own expense, but the Eritrean government responded with hesitation. “Let’s think about it,” was their reply, according to Abiy — a response that signaled a lack of readiness to accept the proposal.

The Prime Minister said Eritrea was “not very ready to respond” to Ethiopia’s requests and admitted he “does not know clearly” why. He blamed the breakdown in relations on the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the devastating Tigray War. “When we signed Pretoria, there was a complaint: ‘It’s not right. Why stop the war? If the TPLF and Tigray are not destroyed, the region won’t find peace,’” he said, attributing the sentiment to the Eritrean government.

Despite tensions, Abiy reiterated his government’s commitment to resolving the Red Sea issue “legally and through dialogue.” He emphasized, “We have absolutely no desire for war,” and urged global powers—including the United States, China, Russia, Europe, and Africa—to mediate.

“What we want to express to America, China, Russia, Europe, and Africa before this esteemed council is that Ethiopia’s Red Sea access issue is inevitable. Our priority is peace and dialogue. So please mediate and bring us a solution,” he said. However, he warned that superficial approaches—such as saying “we will mediate, peace is needed”—would not be effective. “I don’t think the issue will go far,” he added.

Abiy acknowledged that Ethiopia lost access to the Red Sea through a 30-year struggle. “We won’t get it back in one day, nor did we lose it in one day. It will follow a natural process,” he said. While he speculated it could take another 30 years to reclaim access, he added, “I don’t think so. If we approach it calmly and peacefully through dialogue, it won’t take that long. But since time is short, we must look at it with patience.”

In a direct message to the Eritrean government, Abiy called for an end to “smuggling ammunition” to armed groups in Ethiopia, “illegal human trafficking,” and “black market currency” operations involving the U.S. dollar. He expressed Ethiopia’s interest in “growing together peacefully” with Eritrea—if these issues are resolved.

“We have no desire to fight anyone,” Abiy reiterated. “But if conflict erupts, the outcome is clear. Crying afterward won’t help. That means we must not start now.” He warned, “No one will die for you. They may give you morale, but they won’t die for you. In the end, you will die—it won’t help.”

He concluded, “We have no desire to engage in conflict with anyone. But if we do, the outcome is clear. We have reliable capacity, and no one will stop us. This should be clear. I think it’s important to act responsibly so we don’t go there.” Abiy affirmed, “I am a million percent sure that Ethiopia will not remain closed—whether anyone wants it or not.”